[TrudyM]

OK- I know prices are what the market will bear but really.
When I look at a house that is preowned and compare the listing price with the last sold at price (listed on Zillow) a lot of the listings were bought within the last two years and are listed for 50 to 100 thousand over what they paid. And I recognize quite a few of them from when I was looking at rentals a year ago. I think there are some real estate speculators at work here. I understand 20 thou, real estate commission and then a little profit but when a house sold new construction for 60% of the current asking I think that the speculation is out of hand.
Do you think it is a bubble that will burst or level out. I mean the number of preowned on the market both VLS, MLS and buy owner as a % of total units built in the villages seems high to me. I know they are selling but how much do you think the hype of the sales people "grab it now or it will be gone" is influencing things.

[mickey100]

Part of the allure of some of the preowneds may be location. IMHO, the location of many of the new areas is not as good as some of the central areas of the Villages. I suppose that sales people can be influencing things as we'll with their "buy now or you'll lose out" spiel.

[villagerjack]

Originally Posted by TrudyM

OK- I know prices are what the market will bear but really.
When I look at a house that is preowned and compare the listing price with the last sold at price (listed on Zillow) a lot of the listings were bought within the last two years and are listed for 50 to 100 thousand over what they paid. And I recognize quite a few of them from when I was looking at rentals a year ago. I think there are some real estate speculators at work here. I understand 20 thou, real estate commission and then a little profit but when a house sold new construction for 60% of the current asking I think that the speculation is out of hand.
Do you think it is a bubble that will burst or level out. I mean the number of preowned on the market both VLS, MLS and buy owner as a % of total units built in the villages seems high to me. I know they are selling but how much do you think the hype of the sales people "grab it now or it will be gone" is influencing things.

I guess if you are an owner, prices do not seem to be out of hand but if you were waiting to buy perhaps they seem speculative. Remember it is the monthly payment that drives sales and interest rates are still at historic 50 year lows and stick market has recovered.

[villagerjack]

In many cases we are just back to 2006-2007 levels so, no I don't think there is much speculation or hype.,Just real demand.

[rubicon]

The prices today still have not reached the 2005-2007 prices. Back then they told you what you were going to pay and what you were going to get there was no negotiations . so I told the sales rep what I wanted in a house and at what price. Three weeks later she called and it meant our satisfaction including the location.

there are people buying homes here who may/maynot live here and using them exclusively as rentals.

[Billyworld]

I think prices will rise for the next few years and then stabilize. Once The Villages is built out and all the "snowbirds" retire and move down here full time, or minus the summer months, this place will be a madhouse. If you think "The Season" is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet. At that point The Villages will be so crowded that the shine will have worn off. You will then see several houses for sale on every street as people start leaving The Villages. At that point the prices will drop and be in line with the rest of the state. As a Real Estate licensee in Florida, I predicted the housing crash that we all watched and predicted the housing crash in California in the early 90's. Everyone thought I was nuts at the time only to come back and say "How did you know the end was near"? With that I will be long gone and have both my properties sold selling before the bust at the top dollar as I did in the past two bursts. Yes the Bust is coming and the bubble will burst!

[TrudyM]

Originally Posted by villagerjack

In many cases we are just back to 2006-2007 levels so, no I don't think there is much speculation or hype.,Just real demand.

And what happened to the prices in 2008 through 2010. Some of these I look at sold for 40 60 thousand in 2010 than people paid for them in 2005 or 2006 and now they are back on the market for 30 to 40 thousand more than the 2005 price so the person who bought them in 2010 is marking them up 70 to 90 thousand over what they paid 4 years ago. But the ones that get me is the ones that purchased 13 months ago and are listing for 60 70 thou more than they paid. I don't think they will get it but still it has an effect on the overall climate of the market in the villages. And I am not even going to the developer is putting pools on all the decent size lots and I don't want a pool place.

[janmcn]

There are so many variables that even the developer has no control over. For instance; what will the final tally from the IRS be? What will the water situation be in the future? How about the frequency of sinkholes? What will the Florida Legislature allow insurance companies to get away with? What shopping and dining will be coming this way? These are just a few things that could influence real estate prices in The Villages.

[TrudyM]

Originally Posted by villagerjack

I guess if you are an owner, prices do not seem to be out of hand but if you were waiting to buy perhaps they seem speculative. Remember it is the monthly payment that drives sales and interest rates are still at historic 50 year lows and stick market has recovered.

No I don't think of it that way, the real cost is the alternative investment cost of the money. If you pay 50 thousand more for a place then the real cost is the income you are loosing by not investing that money. Borrowing the money instead of using your own is a leverage to invest issue and in my mind does not come into play when looking at the value of an real estate purchase. I always look at buying a house as an investment with hopefully a return as we never know what the future will hold. But that's just me.

[DianeM]

Sellers will sell for what the market will bear.

[rubicon]

Originally Posted by Billyworld

I think prices will rise for the next few years and then stabilize. Once The Villages is built out and all the "snowbirds" retire and move down here full time, or minus the summer months, this place will be a madhouse. If you think "The Season" is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet. At that point The Villages will be so crowded that the shine will have worn off. You will then see several houses for sale on every street as people start leaving The Villages. At that point the prices will drop and be in line with the rest of the state. As a Real Estate licensee in Florida, I predicted the housing crash that we all watched and predicted the housing crash in California in the early 90's. Everyone thought I was nuts at the time only to come back and say "How did you know the end was near"? With that I will be long gone and have both my properties sold selling before the bust at the top dollar as I did in the past two bursts. Yes the Bust is coming and the bubble will burst!

Billyworld: I do not disagree with your rationale. But tell me where then will people go? and in this economy how do you properly time the sell before the bust. The WSJ reports on the housing market and one month its up and the next its back to 2009 levels, etc. Many of the people who bought here but haven't retired rent out their homes I'm told by a village employee that this month of February has seen a record high in renters.

'The upside is that amenities are stressed and will continue to be until or unless more are provided

[villagerjack]

Billy world...what makes you so sure that the snowbirds will retire and mover down here full time? Most of the snowbirds I know will keep this as a second home,as I will. Your negative speculation, based on zero facts, is just negative speculation. Please stick with the facts.

[Challenger]

Quite a few very suspect statements about price increases in this thread. Accounting for location differences , upgrades , remaining bond balance at time of sale, the prices may differ much less than anecdotal-incomplete info seen here. Only a competent appraisal will acurately represent values at any point in time.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by DianeM

Sellers will sell for what the market will bear.

And you are exactly right.

[gomoho]

Don't put too much faith in what Zillow reports - my neighbor's house showed it sold for $100k more than it did. The tax records should reflect the correct price - notice I said should.