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02-16-2015, 06:04 PM
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"I don’t normally like to comment on other people’s polls, but sometimes we all do things we don’t like to do. So today my attention is drawn to a Drudge Report headline that reads: SHOCK POLL: WARREN LEADS CLINTON IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. Remember the game, “Made Ya Look”? I did.
The polls in question were conducted by the very reputable online firm named YouGov, which polls for among others, The Economist. Having been engaged in online polling since 1999, I am a big fan of YouGov and the future of our industry. Their clients were two progressive groups, Democracy for America and MoveOn.org. The results actually show that if the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary were held today, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren would not defeat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in either state. Instead, the poll reveals that certain traits and policy positions that Sen. Warren represents could defeat Clinton.
Is that news? Absolutely. Is it accurate? No doubt. This is a very legitimate form of polling. We do it all the time at Zogby Analytics. To be good at what we do, we not only seek to discover what presently exists, but what could happen under certain circumstances. Like Wayne Gretsky who once noted in an interview that his edge over others was because he not only followed where the puck actually was on the ice, but anticipated where it should be next.
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"So the YouGov poll tells us a lot. As the poll sponsors tell us:
The results show that, after likely caucus goers and primary voters learn about Elizabeth Warren’s biography and issue positions, not only do a stunning 79 percent say they want her to run, but, in both states, Warren ends up leading all other potential Democratic candidates in a head-to-head ballot question.
And:
After respondents hear about Warren’s positions and biography, without any negative information provided about other candidates, Elizabeth Warren leads all other candidates for the nomination in both states: 31 percent to 24 percent over Hillary Clinton in Iowa (with other potential candidates further behind) and 30 percent to 27 percent in New Hampshire.
Make no mistake, this is a big story. At the very least, Clinton is going to have to work for the nomination. At most, Democratic voters in these two key states may be already looking for an option. But the real story is that the challenger is going to have to execute a pitch perfect campaign – and that is the hard part."
Can Elizabeth Warren Beat Hillary Clinton? Beware Of 'Shock Polls' - Forbes
This is very relative and certainly interesting.
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