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02-23-2015, 01:40 PM
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Iran update
From Irania press...
"US President Barack Obama is “under pressure” to reach an agreement with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear energy program, an American foreign policy analyst says.
“It’s quite obvious to everyone that Mr. Obama would like to have a deal with Iran,” said James George Jatras, a former US diplomat and adviser to the Senate Republican leadership.
“He’s under a lot of pressure to try to bring negotiations to a conclusion that he can defend domestically,” Jatras said Sunday during a phone interview with Press TV.
“I doubt very much that the United States would walk away from the negotiations because this is such a strong priority for Mr. Obama who otherwise has very little to show in the realm of foreign policy,” he added."
PressTV-'Obama wants nuclear pact with Iran'
GENEVA (AP) — The United States and Iran are working on a two-phase deal that clamps down on Tehran's nuclear program for at least a decade before providing it leeway over the remainder of the agreement to slowly ramp up activities that could be used to make weapons.
Phased US-Iran nuclear deal taking shape
"Good or bad Iran nuke deal? Israel vs. the US administration
"GOOD DEAL OR BAD DEAL?
Relying on an inspection regime seems dicey considering the history of nations the world over — including Israel itself — acquiring nuclear weapons through deceit. And an Iranian nuclear weapon would further tilt the already unstable Middle Eastern strategic equation.
"It is one thing to try and verify that they are not bypassing you and it is another to verify that there is nothing to verify," Israeli Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz told The Associated Press.
But defenders of such a deal say that such an evasion would be very difficult. Daryl Kimball of the Washington-based Arms Control Association says tough monitoring would result in "enough time to detect and disrupt" any Iranian effort to work on a bomb.
In any case, the option of pressing Iran toward total dismantling seems unrealistic. In a world where the U.S. has no stomach for another Middle Eastern military involvement, and Russia and China are unlikely to join a total embargo on the Iranian economy, proponents of the possible deal see it as the least bad option.
WHAT'S THE MAIN DISPUTE AND WHO'S AHEAD?
With only a few weeks left until the March deadline, Iran — which insists it does not want nuclear arms — seems to be ahead in pushing the other side to compromise.
The main dispute is over the size and potency of Iran's uranium enrichment program, which can make both reactor fuel and the fissile core of a weapon. The U.S., along with Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, came to the table demanding that Tehran dismantle 80 to 90 percent of the nearly 10,000 centrifuges now turning out enriched uranium along with all of the 8,000 or so other machines set up but not working.
But faced with Iranian resistance, diplomats now say the U.S. is prepared to accept 4,500 operating centrifuges — perhaps more — if Tehran agrees to constraints on their efficiency.
Washington has also compromised on initial demands that constraints on Iran's nuclear program last 20 years or more. Diplomats say it is now ready to accept 10 to 12 years.
WILL A DEAL LEAVE IRAN ON THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS THESHOLD?
The U.S. administration continues to insist that it will not accept any deal that does not extend the time Iran could make a nuclear bomb to at least a year.
Kimball, of the Arms Control Association, says that there is no alternative to the U.S. approach. Hopes that Iran will substantially bend on centrifuge numbers after more than a decade of resistance are "a dangerous illusion," he says.
Olli Heinonen, a former head of the Iran file at the U.N. nuclear agency, says the mix could work, but only if Iran agrees to run no more than 2,000 to 4,000 centrifuges — something Tehran says it will not accept.
"The killer is the number of centrifuges," says Heinonen.
David Albright of the Institute for Science and Security in Washington notes that — even if such a deal is sealed — it becomes difficult to monitor because of all the moving parts.
"The more elements you add, the more Iran can break individually," he says.
And he says that even destroying all of Iran's centrifuges, as Israel demands, would probably leave Tehran in a position to rebuild enough to make a bomb within two years in a "crash program" applying decades of expertise."
Good or bad Iran nuke deal? Israel vs. the US administration
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