[mgcsooner]

Just my guess but the demand would far outstrip the supply of homes. There are going to be more retirements in the next 5-8 years than ever, and there are just too many headed for FL. So for the next 5-8 years, I'd guess annual appreciation of 6-10% a year, slightly higher than it's been for the last 5-8.

For many that lease for 4 or more months, they're already at the break even point of just buying now and forgoing the appreciation. That's why so many rent out, to help defray the costs until they can finally make the big move.

I doubt sinkholes etc will factor in much as they are sporatic and throughout FL. The nation's economy is most likely the biggest threat, should a recession hit lots of second homes historically go on the market.

The other factor is continued expansion of TV. While it seems like it's boxed in, there are lots of large properties adjacent or close to TV that people are not going to hold onto for ever. TV would probably pay more for it than anyone else, but then many of them are unrealistic in asking prices. A recession or property inheritance may move up those properties sooner than many think too. Given the opportunity, I find it very difficult to image why TV would not continue to expand as long as it could acquire property for fair values. But to buy land at outrageous prices only further increases the per property cost they'd have to pass along.

Once TV buildout is reached, adjacent undeveloped property is not likely to increase, but instead decrease. Being right next to TV is not worth any more than being 5 minutes away if all other factors such as shopping and major road access are just as good. And 5 minutes away the $/Acre is much lower. Holdouts will not be happy they did so. Again, just my opinion and marketing 101.