I've signed hundreds if not more than a thousand of these in the last 30 years. You cannot tell what the driver's handicap is with a glance. Most are for respiratory or cardiac conditions that preclude the patient from walking 200 feet. Many are also temporary after surgery. Heck, I had emergency neurosurgery on my neck 5 days ago and qualify---I can even sign my own, but you wouldn't be able to tell from looking at me.
My best advice is to be happy YOU don't need one and not worry about what your neighbor's reason is, and let the very few number of scammers live with their own conscience.
As far as the thief goes, he/she should have a reserved spot at the furthest end of any parking lot from now on.
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