It doesn't work that way as there is no "right" or "wrong". What is tracked is the error in the path and error in the point of landfall, in units of distance. Ideally it would be zero but that doesn't happen. Typically, an envelope of possible paths is presented whereby there is a very high probability that the true path will be in that envelope. The envelope widens with forecast length, which represents the uncertainty with time.
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Originally Posted by Taltarzac725
They seem to be right about 10% or less of the time. At least as far as the path of the hurricane or tropical storm is concerned over its 12 hour or more path.
I would not worry much if you are in the Villages except for the tornado warnings. Then get in a safe place.
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