Quote:
Originally Posted by biker1
You are better off looking at the Hurricane Center's "envelope" of possible positions with time as it reflects a large amount of information, including ensemble runs. Looking at just one model is not a good idea.
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I don't pretend to be any kind of a weather expert. That said, I lived in coastal SC for 12 years and here for 6 years. And as I stated earlier, I tend to pay attention to depressions and named storms. In my experience, the European model (ECMWF) has been consistently the best and most accurate storm forecast model. It was updated in 2006 with the most advanced technology available. Our National Weather Service begs for the funds to upgrade their system to no avail.
I agree, the cone of uncertainty is what we should pay attention to, but a little research will prove the European model is the standard bearer in tropical storm forecasting.