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Originally Posted by tuccillo
I have undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology and developed numerical prediction models for the National Weather Service so I will chime in. The ECMWF model has been slightly ahead of the other national centers on statistics such as the 500mb anomaly coefficient but like most stories in the media that people feast on that doesn't tell the whole story. The extent of the National Weather Service's obligations is much wider than ECMWF. The National Weather Service is currently soliciting bids for a new infusion of computer power (and I am working on the procurement) so don't believe what you read about not getting upgrades - it simply isn't true.
As previously posted, the prudent thing to do is look at the National Hurricane Center's forecast as the results of many models go into that forecast. On any particular day, any model can be good or bad. Often, different model forecasts are closer to each other than the real world. And, by the way, ECMWF has made many improvements to their forecast model, both resolution, physics, and the generation of initial conditions, as have the other national centers, since 2006. 2006 is an eternity ago.
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That's great news about the long over due upgrade being worked on. 2006 was the year when the ECMWF was upgraded and of course there have been many since as you stated. I have high regard for the scientists and meteorologists who work tirelessly to provide us with potential live saving information and forecasts. They deserve the best software/hardware available. In my opinion, they should have had that long ago, an eternity ago even. Thank you for your contribution to this project. For everyones safety, I hope the upgrade is a success.