[tuccillo]

There continues to be some variability in the numerical model simulations from cycle to cycle - this is not at all unusual. The later cycles show a bit of a trend westward to the coastal regions but the forecasters have taken a more easterly path with the official forecast. Clearly the prudent thing to do. There is a pretty strong short wave coming from the Great Plains and the exact timing will impact the storm track. Pragmatically, we will need to wait until the 12Z run tomorrow to have a better feel for whether it will be off the coast or not. Regardless, the coastal regions of FL, GA, SC, and NC will be impacted. Landfall in SC is a real possibility. How the northeast will do is still too far out in time to have a good handle on. The latest spectral model simulation has a jog to the northeast, away from land, once it gets to the latitude of the Outer Banks (if it hangs off the coast).

I doubt there will be serious impact to The Villages. We may very well see a couple of inches of precip and 30 MPH winds out of the north are likely. Friday will not be a good golf day ;-). Kinetic energy goes as the square of the velocity so there is a big difference between 30 MPH winds and 60 MPH winds.