The latest 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are looking closer to each other than previous cycles with the NWS code agreeing with the more southerly track of the ECMWF code. The ensembles from the NWS code look pretty consistent through 144 hours so I would put that at the current limit of believability. Both codes show landfall around the South Carolina/North Carolina border area on Monday morning September 11. The forecast length at landfall is about 200 hours - that is really too far out for much confidence, however.
The ridge over the western Atlantic has stayed strong which is forcing a southerly route. The associated trough in the eastern US starts to lift out on Friday September 8 - the ECMWF code appears to have been more consistent in this regard.
We need to wait a few of more days to have more confidence in the model solutions in the time frame of a possible strike on the east coast. The trend for a more southerly route is troubling but we probably aren't in the picture.
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