[tuccillo]

The 12Z cycle of the NWS Spectral code takes Irma up the east coast of FL with landfall near the GA/SC border. This is consistent with the 06Z cycle. The simulation puts Irma directly east of The Villages (on the east coast) around 5AM Monday Morning. This is still out at 6 days into the future so there can be substantial uncertainties. Everything considered, this would be a good outcome for The Villages (windy with several inches of rain), less so for others. The 5PM Forecast discussion by the NHC should be an interesting read. The ECMWF code runs a bit later than the NWS code.

For those who are wondering what a "model" is, here is brief description. Essentially a "model" is a computer code that solves the 3-dimensional equations for fluid motion that describe the atmosphere. These are basically conservation equations for momentum, pressure, temperature, and several moisture variables. These are time dependent partial differential equations so they can be numerically integrated from an initial state to simulate the future state of momentum, pressure, temperature, and moisture. For the NWS code, the initial state is created every 6 hours using various data sources around the globe. Forecasters will then look at the solutions and create the "worded" forecast that you hear/read on various media sources.