The 18Z cycle of the NWS spectral code shows a northerly track that is east of the 12Z cycle; well out over the water east of the FL coast with landfall near the NC/SC border. The path takes it through most of the Bahamas. While this would certainly be ideal for FL, the ensembles and other codes would suggest that it is not the most likely solution. The last 3 cycles of the NWS code have all favored the east side of FL.
The earlier 12Z cycle of the ECMWF code has Irma making landfall in southwest FL and then moving north up the spine of FL. The ECMWF code is run twice a day off of the 00Z and 12Z data dumps - will have to wait until early morning for the 00Z solution from the ECMWF code.
The NHC forecasters like the more southerly route in the 5PM discussion and track forecast. They would not have seen the 18Z cycle of the NWS spectral code for the 5PM discussion track forecast. Here is the latest track forecast:
HURRICANE IRMA
Tomorrow's 5PM discussion and track forecast from the NHC will be the interesting one to watch as we will see their thoughts on whether they favor the west coast of FL or up the spine of FL. However, we will be looking at 4-5 day track forecast with an average track error of 200 miles. Stay tuned.