Quote:
Originally Posted by tuccillo
The 00Z NWS and ECMWF spectral model cycles are now remarkably like each other. The NWS code is lifting the trough in the east out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is important as it impacts the steering current. Both codes are now taking Irma up the east side of FL and making landfall around SC. The NWS code is just a bit faster, which is consistent with lifting the trough out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is 4 cycles in a row that the NWS code has taken Irma up the east coast of FL.
The 11PM NHC forecast discussion (which was prepared before seeing the 00Z runs), made reference to the 18Z (and previous cycles) of the NWS code but referred to them as outliers and favored the more westerly ECMWF solution. The official forecast track favors a path pointing to the western side of FL. It will be interesting to see if the 5AM forecast discussion favors a more easterly solution after seeing the 00Z cycle runs of both codes. Here is the official forecast track:
HURRICANE IRMA
Note that the envelope surrounding the forecast track does encompass the east coast of FL. We are still out at 5 days with a correspondingly large potential error in the forecast track. |
Great info. Thanks.
You believe the noaa link you provided will shortly change to a more easterly?
I hope.