Good question. I suspect the NHC forecasters will adopt a more easterly track with the 5AM forecast discussion and official track forecast based on the HWRF code being consistent with the latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF codes. Ideally, they would probably prefer to see another ECMWF cycle (12Z cycle) bring Irma up the east coast before jumping in. Basically, you are looking for cycle to cycle consistency. The NHC forecasters are also looking at the ensembles from both global codes to judge their reliability. Regardless, we will continue to see a rather large envelope surrounding the track at 4-5 days.
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Originally Posted by Allegiance
Great info. Thanks.
You believe the noaa link you provided will shortly change to a more easterly?
I hope.
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