The 18Z (the latest cycle) NWS spectral model's precipitation forecast shows more like 5-10 inches with the track shift to the west. It is still 3 days out - keep following the latest results on the Weather Channel. With the latest westward movement of the track, I think wind is more of a concern for us in The Villages. I start to worry about losing roofing shingles. The numerical model guidance has really been a roller coaster over the last several day - up the middle of the FL, landfall over southwest FL, up the east coast, and now up the east half of FL. Saturday afternoon will be the time when the track is nailed down once it makes the turn to the north. I believe the official track is east of the latest ECMWF track (12Z cycle).
The 18Z NWS spectral model shows Irma over land for the southern portion of the east coast of FL and then moving over the coastal region of north eastern FL before making landfall again in SE GA. This is consistent with the 12Z cycle of the HWRF code. A 50-100 mile variance in the track actually make a big difference in how we are impacted. Stay tuned.
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Originally Posted by dewilson58
The Weather Channel just updated their maps and indicated The Villages with 4 inches of rain thru Monday.
Orlando up to 8 inches.
Still encouraged.
Thanks for all your updates Tucc.
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