The 5AM NHC forecast track continues to mostly follow the ECMWF spectral code with the track moving just to the east of us. The 6Z NWS spectral code has the track a bit further east. It is forecast to be in our vicinity around early Monday morning as a cat-1 or cat-2 storm. This track still has a large envelope of possible locations but is starting to look more and more solid.
Here are the forecasted wind maximums. 6Z on the 11 is 2AM Monday morning and is still a bit south of us.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 21.7N 73.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.6N 77.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 23.3N 79.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 33.0N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Here is the latest official NHC forecast track:
HURRICANE IRMA