Perhaps it's time to look at what would happen if construction of TV actually stopped.
The impact on the local economy would be devastating.
- First there is the primary construction business - the actual building of the homes - several thousand would be out of work in the construction trades in the local area.
- Then there is the suppliers and supporting trades for the construction businesses, these would be left without a revenue source and would shutter their doors and lay off workers.
- The secondary construction market - landscaping, pools, add-ons, floor tile, etc. - without the continued supply of new homes people want customized after they move in these businesses will also go under, adding more to the unemployment picture. Have you ever wondered why after a new area is open for sale the lift gates don't need the access cards for the first 12-18 months, this operation is called construction mode and is to limit the calls to Community Watch to open the gates because of all the secondary construction that is going on.
With the loss of employment and good paying jobs two key things start to happen:
- The inevitable rise in crime will occur in the area and spread quickly like a disease.
- People will move away to find employment elsewhere.
The rise in crime is multi-faceted issue with the most obvious being robbery followed by scams and disreputable contractors. That's the easy part to predict.
The victims of this crime will be easy to predict, the easy targets, those less physically and mentally able to defend themselves, and those with assets less affected by a construction downturn. This would be The Villages itself, all of us living here today. The physical aspects of our aging make us easy victims. As a group, the residents here are intelligent and self-motivated people who have been successful in life and are now enjoying the fruits of their lifelong labors. Translation: most of us here are less able to physically defend ourselves against attackers and people here have money and pretty shiny things the criminals want.
For those that would not desire to stoop to physical confrontation there are a lot of easy targets yet to be had. Take a walk down your street at dusk this time of year, how many homes here are empty as our seasonal neighbors have gone back north? They pretty furnishing and belongings are easy pickings. It doesn't take an Al Monday or a Danny Ocean to rob a house, just a foot, rock, or a hammer will get you into most homes.
Of course, the homes of our seasonal neighbors are a great target themselves for other reasons. The unemployed have difficulties making the mortgage and rent payments. Here sits hundreds of homes, fully and nicely furnished with the utilities still on just welcoming squatters to move in. We're not a gated community and security is minimal from Sumter County and Community Watch. Evicting your new squatter neighbor is very very difficult.
Another layer to the picture is the surrounding businesses - restaurants, stores, services, medical/health care, etc. - these will also see a decrease in business causing many to close down. The realities of today's economics is that in a family, both spouses work and if one loses their job and they decide to move to greener pastures both leave and a vacancy exists in another business now. Many local businesses will be without the needed workers to support their remaining customers.
These changes in local economics would obviously make TV a less desirable location to live. Home values would be impacted as well as quality of life. This would ripple down to the coffers of the local governments and the services provided.
I could go on for pages more on this topic but I think most will get the picture I am painting here. This isn't some doom and gloom fantasy I've made up in my head. This has played out time and again throughout the country as factories, steel mills, auto plants, military base, and other local and regional economic drivers close down or move on. The extreme example of this is Detroit as the auto industry moved away.
Florida will continue to grow for may years to come, currently about 1000 people a day move here. A very small portion of these move to TV. Buying a seasonal home is not counted by the state as moving to Florida, just additional tax dollars, so the growth from TV is even smaller a percentage that what it may seem. The growth we see here is well organized and planned unlike the sprawl that has consumed the southeast Florida coast, the Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville areas, and the other major population centers of the state. The homes being built here are also resource efficient in both power and water usage (I don't want to get into the water issues here), making them more attractive than other areas to those on a fixed income.
What is happening here with the VOSO growth is no different than what happened 15+ years ago when the growth between CR466 and SR44. The biggest difference now is that information is more readily accessible and all within the city limits of Wildwood. When Harold Schwartz and Gary Morse started buying up the rural county land in the 90's to go all the way to SR44 few paid attention nor anticipated the grand plans they both had in mind. These plans are still unfolding before us today.
What does 50,000 new homes do for us, the current residents of TV? It means continued strong economic growth and stability for the next 20+ years. It means a stable growing market (and values) for both new and resale homes - not everyone wants a new home or to live in the newer areas. It means that wanted and needed services continue to grow for just like in the move, if you build it, they will come. In the day-to-day living here new homes have little impact on our lives as there is a process of decoupling that goes on in a community this size. What happens in Fenney has virtually no impact on what happens in LSL. What happens in SS is of little concern to those in the Brownwood area, and vice-versa. Few will venture excessive distances to do trivia, water aerobics, or pickleball, and they don’t need to because what most people want is already nearby them. It does open more opportunities and creative avenues that may not have been thought of 20, 15, 10, or even 5 years ago.
If your realtor used the term "build-out" they were either a liar or an uninformed fool and didn't have a clue about their market. Build-out means to a developer - I can do no more here and am moving on. Long term plans for TV are tightly guarded secrets that only a few know, and only enough is revealed to keep the plan moving. We don't get so see all the secrets all at once, we don't get to know how many more golf courses are going to be built, we don't get to know what retail establishments they are courting, and we never will. What we do see is a well-run business with a track record and plan that is second to none in their industry. It’s doubtful they’ll turn away from a successful plan that has worked for 30+ years, but I would expect changes to adjust to the market and needs of new arrivals.
For those that beat the drum of “it’s too big” and “stop building” I would suggest you take a long look at the bigger picture of what is happening here and what it means long term. Truly, what doesn’t grow surely will die.
I could be completely wrong here, for which my wife would as usual not let me forget, but I think not.