Quote:
Originally Posted by TNGary
Harley Davidson took another hit at least as of mid day today due to another round of poor earnings. Appears the next generation, of millennials, are not buying into the Harley concept. Company states a turnaround plan to attract them, including all Electric bikes. Yield is decent. What's the future of HOG? buybacks? Go private? Will be an adjustment for me at least to not hear the motorcycle due to electric power. Could be a safety issue also during the adjustment period.
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TNGary,
I cannot resist your question but -- first, my disclaimer:
I have no letters after my name to indicate that I have any professional knowledge of investments. For all you know, I might be some retired high school teacher from the Midwest. My investment advice is worth exactly what you are paying for it.
About HOG:
Many years ago, I bought Mr. Boomer 50 shares for his birthday. It was so long ago, that the symbol was then HDI, not yet HOG. I wrote a little poem to go with the gift. The gist of my poem was how I could not afford to buy him the bike but here ya go, 50 shares, maybe someday, in the far, far future.
And so it went.
Turned out to be a good investment. The stock went up and split and went up again. So few shares would never have reached the price of one of those gorgeous machines though.
Anyway, the stock was sold a few years later, at a tidy gain.The profit went into his single-engine piloting fund. So it really did turn out to be a good present for him, just not a Hog in the garage.
But, would I buy the stock now?
I must say I would not.
(I have fond memories of the most beautiful annual reports that we got in the mail. Wonderful pictures of those bikes.)
I think the Hog itself will be with us for a long time. I sure hope. There is nothing like the sound of that engine.
But as far as an investment goes, I just can't feel this one. I think the Hog's heyday is behind us.
Lots of us boomers still love the iconic Hog. But it does not seem to be a millennial thing.
A lot of millennials have huge student loan debt. Tuition as a percentage of family income is an outrageous number now, not like it was a hundred years ago when I started college. Health insurance costs, even when under an employer, can carry big out-of-pocket.
I think it is much harder now for hardworking young people to get ahead and so disposable income is going to be a long time off, if it ever comes.
Besides all that, much of the current millennial philosophy is that they do not want our stuff. They do not want our china or our silver or a house in the burbs. With no burb house, with a garage, where would they keep their Harleys.
So if you are thinking about a stock that makes you wonder what younger people really want -- and, more importantly need, I do not think HOG would be a good choice.
In addition to that, I do not think the tariff situation is having a calming effect on HOG.
But who really knows?