Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Dead Cat Bounce
Thread: Dead Cat Bounce
View Single Post
 
Old 09-30-2008, 10:16 PM
Guest
n/a
 
Posts: n/a
Default There Reaches A Point...

,,,in any debate, where the parties can only agree to disagree, I think we're there on this issue.

Based on experience, I attempted to describe what was happening, what was likely to continue to happen, and why. Unfortunately, so far my scenario is playing out accurately. Investors in the U.S. stock market have already lost more than twice the amount of the proposed bailout. They are almost certain to lose a multiple of that more in coming weeks and months. The much larger losers will be American workers and their families and others around the world. There will be a dramatiic slowdown of economic activity, business failures, unemployment, a reforming of the economy around the world. It has begun. This is not debatable. The statistics and anecdotal evidence is overwhelming. But there still is a reasonable chance that further losses--financial, economic and personal--can be lessened. Had the proposed bailout been authorized when proposed there was a chance the economic damage might have been slowed, but probably not avoided because the fundamental economic damage has already been done. If legislation is passed by the U.S. Congress later this week, there still is a chance the damage will be ameliorated. The probability will be lessened because the process of the shutting down of the worldwide credit markets has already begun. The investment of $700 billion, even at this late date, still has a chance of paying reasonable dividends in loss avoidance. But there is no guarantee.

What I have talked about in supporting the distasteful, infuriating investment of public funds is a lessening of the financial damage and a shortening of its duration. What others have talked about here is economic and business theory as well as references to public opinion on the propriety of both those guilty and innocent of causing this problem being beneficiaries of the expenditure of the funds. That theory, criticisms and opinion are worthy of consideration. But unfortunately the description of what is happening and what is likely to happen has been more accurate thus far. The only differences remaining to be determined, based on whether or not the Congress decides to use public funds to create liquidity in the credit markets, are in the depth of the losses, the personal pain people will feel, and the duration of the economic damage.

I have purposely avoided discussion of the undefinable costs associated with the erosion of American influence in world political and financial affairs. But make no mistake, those costs exist as well.

So there's no need to continue the debate. We can wait and see what happens. There should be no satisfaction as the result of who's beliefs turn out to be more accurate because one other thing is an absolute certainty--each and every one of us will be effected. Unfortunately, generations of our progeny will as well.