[ColdNoMore]

All 'recessions'...are not created equal.

Given that we are now, hands down, in the longest economic expansion in American history...simple common sense says it HAS to correct at some point.

The big question of course is...by how much?

In my mind, the concerning part is that most of the tools in the toolbox that can be used to soften any recession, have already been used (tax cuts/low interest rates/eliminating regulations/etc.)...just to keep this one going.

A weapon is useless, if you've already used all of your ammunition.

As for those who are naive enough to think a shrinking economy is just "fake news" generated by the media, you may want to do some research on trucking/railroad volumes which are leading indicators...and put less emphasis on trailing indicators.

You might also ask yourself, as much as it might hurt, who benefits the most by trying to make you believe everything is just hunky-dory...and there's nothing to worry about?

Leading Indicators (Blow truck Horn Here)

The Transportation Services Indexes (TSI) are leading indicators of economic cycles, according to new research released today by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

In a new technical report, Transportation Services Index and the Economy—Revisited, BTS reported that the two components of the TSI – the freight index and the passenger index – both lead the economy, although in different ways.

BTS extended the TSI back to 1979, examining five re*cessions and numerous growth cycles. “When the accelerations and decelera*tions of the freight TSI are compared to the growth cycles of the economy, the freight measure leads by an average of approximately four months,”