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Old 03-17-2020, 04:47 AM
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Originally Posted by skarra View Post
I heard a WHO scientist say that approx 20% of the people who get the virus will wind up in a hospital in need of breathing assistance. Of those some proportion will die (worldmeters.info website currently shows that as being about 8%)

Of the 80% that don't end up in hospital, about half will get some sort of serious condition like scaring of the lung tissue or pneumonia - the other half will experience flu like symptoms. For the young that is not as big a deal, but they are still at risk. For the above 60 or with a pre-existing condition, that can still be fatal.

It's a numbers game, but due to how quickly this is spreading and how few hospital beds we have per person in this country, we are all at risk - much greater than that of the flu. That's why even the orange one has finally admitted we have a major problem.
I've spent some time checking reliable medical sources this morning and cannot find any hard data regarding percentage of hospitalizations or ventilatory support due to COVID-19. The national mortality rate from it is 1.9% according to the CDC as of this morning, but is likely less than 1/2 of that once more testing is available.

The estimate that 20% of those that contract coronavirus will end up in a hospital on a vent is outlandish. If 40 million Americans contract it (which is the average number for influenza each year) that would be 8 million ventilators, the US has between 100 and 200 thousand, many of them in use. More likely 2% will need hospitalization and 10% of those vent support, but even that would be 80,000 vents and overwhelming.

As far as 1/2 of 80% of outpatient victims having serious sequella, most posters on TOTV would call BS, but I'll simply call res ipsa loquitur, (the thing speaks for itself)