The predictive graphs are just that, predictive, with a large outcome range, which means that the historical data needs more data points to have a narrower range of confidence. That will happen over time, but this outcome is the nature of war time data, foggy and not robust in the beginning. However its the best prediction that we can get from the limited data we have today, but as always, the future is uncertain, versus the reality of the past. The problem with state data is that the hospital beds may not all be co-located with the infection rate and need rates. So its a prediction, and will get better over time. CoachK's former boss is a PHD bio statistician, has worked in Washington for CMS, and is working on his own model to determine the peak based upon deaths. he said he will need two more weeks of data for the prediction to have some validity.
So treat the prediction as information but not factual, which can be very difficult for certain personality types, which is how their brain is wired. The future is uncertain, and the future has not arrived yet. My niece in law to be is a NYC nurse manager, and she is stressed beyond belief, as front line nurses are dying. So be a high information reader and take your protective steps seriously as the villages is in a war of survival right now, and that will be evident in several weeks from now.
sportsguy
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