Quote:
Originally Posted by jacksonbrown
Unfortunately, COVID-19 models seem to be just as bad and just as unreliable as climate change models.
The reporting on models tend to be highly politicized.
Please, consider the source.
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Yes all those Covid models that early on were suggesting that this could be a major pandemic and cause significant illness and death everywhere, not just in China. Those models that the WHO used to announce a pandemic. If you read the analysis it will tell you what sources of information they used what the possible errors are in those sources and what parameters are known vs unknown in the model. I am not aware of any politicization of model reporting unless you consider simply announcing the findings of a model to be an inherently political event.
Want to learn about epidemiological modeling? How it is done, what are the problems? A very well written article in
The Atlantic is helpful
Want to look at how climate models did? It's in the journal "SCIENCE" And here is a
comment from some organization called NASA Hint, the models have held up very well.
Future modeling from 40 years ago could not factor in the rise of electric vehicles, the enormous shift from oil to natural gas, nor the ban on CFC's. All of these have made a small downward shift in warming. Models often include a range of what the result will be given a change in CO2 or methane or industrial activity. Interestingly this worldwide slowdown from Covid will absolutely benefit the environment, which might if very prolonged, weaken the accuracy of predictions that could never have anticipated such an event. It will be interesting to see how much the CO2 measurements drop in the next couple months.