Two thoughts:
If you want to follow a country that did not practice "stay-at-home", follow Sweden. This may provide a limited amount of information about the non-isolation approach. It won't be perfect since Sweden has a more homogeneous culture (mores', beliefs system, values...) and would not reflect a very diverse cultures that we have in the USA and other countries across the world.
Then look at the Avian Flu (H2N2) data from the 1957-58 time period in the USA. "The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States" (source: CDC). You can also read about other pandemics (1968 H3N2; 2009 H1N1) as well as the 1918 Influenza pandemic.
Hopefully, we can learn from these lessons and prepare for the next pandemic as we are a more global society now than ever before.
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