[Boomer]

Hello, again, Rebel Pirate,

Whoops.

You must have been writing your response just as I was editing out my comments on what I could not believe nobody else could see coming with 2008 — and my stuff about seeing 2019 as yet another house of cards.

Sometimes I like to talk about the market. I am nothing special. I am not a forecaster. I am not in finance or econ. But I sure could see 2008 coming. To this day, I still cannot comprehend the total lack of common sense that got us into that mess.

Remember drive-by appraisals and reeling in unqualified mortgages, to sell fast in the backdoor secondary market. The interest rate got so low that people were using their houses like uncorked piggy banks, borrowing up to the hilt, a lot of it for wants not needs.

How was it not obvious to anyone paying attention? Obvious answer, I guess, is that mostly nobody wanted to see it.

You asked if I had any predictions about where the economy will go. Of course not, nor would I pretend to. No market predictions possible — no matter how analytical some claim to be.

I have no idea what to think about the big economic picture — although I do have a couple of thoughts on what I think might happen with individual investors. But that is not really forecasting — just thinking about what could happen.

Small investors might be skittish for a long time and if they are investing, many will be more aware of building and maintaining a moat of cash around their stocks. But maybe not. We sure can be a nation of amnesiacs.

As far as the small investor goes, I think there could be more of a willingness to be responsible for learning about how to handle investments on their own. Some might take a good hard look and rethink paying advisors who get a percentage of the total investment, whether the market is up or down. Some will realize that nobody can know what is around the corner. Like Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.”

Owning boring, stodgy, individual stocks that pay a sustainable dividend might become more popular. Maybe investors will stop expecting a rocket ride and just be happy to find dividends that are paying them to wait.

But that is just my guess about the little picture.

Now, please bear with me while I throw in a little story that is analogous to how I see the big picture:

Hercules, a hero from Greek mythology, had to perform many tasks. One of those tasks was to slay the hydra.

The hydra had many heads so cutting off the heads seemed like the logical solution.

The problem was that every time Hercules cut off a head, two would grow back in its place. Two heads became four — four, eight. On and on it went. It took a while, but Hercules finally figured out what to do and killed the monster.

What we have on our hands now is a hydra-headed monster. Where is Hercules when we need him.

Boomer