Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebel Pirate
The term Black Swan was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (NNT), a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader. Taleb wrote about the idea of a Black Swan event in a 2007 book prior to the events of the 2008 financial crisis. Taleb argued that because Black Swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a Black Swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to plan accordingly.
Taleb describes a Black Swan as an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.
I hasten to add that the catastrophic nature of the event must be experienced by all of a society or at least a large portion of the population. I would also argue that for an event to be a true Black Swan it must precipitate some lasting change for society, in an attempt by society to protect itself from a recurrence.
I was chatting with some west coast friends last night and brought up the number of Black Swans we have seen in our life time. My list would include:
The Rodney King riots - a Black Swan mainly (only?) for the greater LA area (1992)
The terrorist attacks of 9/11 (2001)
The housing market collapse and ensuing financial meltdown (2008)
The COVID-19 pandemic (2020)
Would you add any others to the list?
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Many race riots before RK, no black swan
WTC attacked in 93. 01 not a black swan
Resolution Trust Corporation dumping seized RE circa 92, 08 not a black swan
1918 influenza pandemic, COVID-19 not a black swan