IMO we will not get badly hit by Covid. Those who have extrapolated based on the rate of increase early in the pandemic are failing to take heed of the fact that those exponential increases occurred when there were open stores and not social isolation.
With those interventions it is hoped and expected that there will be a dramatic decrease in disease. The cases we are hearing reported now are people who were infected up to 4 weeks ago [2 weeks incubation, 1 week before significant symptoms, 1 week for testing to be done and entered into the database] Some are shorter, but the picture you are seeing as the numbers go up all represent pre-shutdown spread. The early cases were mostly travel related, then known contact related, now most are unknown or community spread.
Do a good job and we will avoid much of the community spread that would have happened without intervention. All you nay-sayers will point to the numbers in a few months and say "see, it was all for nothing" and you'll be wrong.
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Men plug the dikes of their most needed beliefs with whatever mud they can find. - Clifford Geertz
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