Quote:
Originally Posted by captain1202
Have been through a number of previous recessions I think it's fair to say this one is unlike any other for many reasons. I believe the recovery '09 prognostications are unreasonably optimistic.
1) The housing meltdown is still gaining momentum and is no where near bottoming out.
2) Consumers are retrenching as never before for several reasons not the least of which are they have no money, they are worried about their job, they are just plain scared about the political and financial prospects.
3) Previous recoveries have been consumer driven. Because of a tectonic shift in consumer attitudes due to #2 there is a new aversion to assumption of debt. I believe this will be a permanent change.
4) Home building, which was the last recession buster, won't be helping anytime soon. Manufacturing is virtually dead in this country so don't count on that. Auto's won't be the magic bullet either.
5) The "new" financial economy based on smoke and mirrors has proven to be a flop so that's not going to help either.
SOOOOOO......The BIG question is this?
Exactly what sector of the economy is it that is going to drive a recovery and provide employment for the hundreds of thousands of folks that are finding themselves out of work with no reasonable prospect of new work in their chosen field?
Note for Kahuna.. As a former commercial banker you have to be petrified at what you see on the landscape.(??) I'm curious as to where and what businesses would you invest your banks' funds today? Manufacturing? Housing? Retail? Auto's? Financial Services? Credit Cards? What else have we got?
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