Quote:
Originally Posted by toeser
I don't have any old ones to add, but I have a future one. Our national debt, which is screaming higher, will precipitate a future black swan of massive proportions. Anyone who understands compounding and can work an Excel spreadsheet can easily see that we are heading into a financial no-man's-land. It qualifies as a black swan because absolutely no one can accurately predict the timing of the event or the exact nature of how it plays out, even though some of us expect it. The idea that our Fed can create money out of thin air with no limit will be proven to be wrong.
It's going to happen. My wish is that it occurs after my time.
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Toeser, I couldn't agree any more! In fact, I've made similar statements in cocktail party conversation (to a collective ho-hum yawn) but have also engaged in lengthy conversations on the topic with some individuals who I respect as future thinkers. I'm convinced it won't happen in our lifetimes, but it MUST happen...sooner or later.
David Stockman was Director of OMB under Reagan and had a road-show presentation he would give to anyone who would listen. An important piece of his story was that sooner or later, we would get to the point where the entitlements portion of the federal budget consumes the entire federal budget. Then, to use a sailing term, we're in irons. There's no good way out. The only ways out are to reduce or eliminate some entitlements and/or to increase taxes and the budget to the point where both are onerous and anathema to a free market economy.
In the old days, certain factions of our national discussion (the budget hawks) were fiscal conservatives and were consistent in their approach to taxes and spending. That's changed. You can't find many true fiscal conservatives anymore because it's difficult (read almost impossible) to be elected to national office on a fiscal conservative platform.
Sooner or later, all the deficits will come home to roost. Right now with the COVID crisis, we're adding trillions to the national debt. We're headed downhill and picking up speed. When the budget and economy eventually crash it will be discussed as one of the most destructive Black Swans of all time. But some of us see it coming.
Danger Will Robinson!