[Velvet]

Originally Posted by miharris

Several people have referenced an article in the WSJ regarding the coming surge of Covid-19 cases in the villages, so I decided to post a daily update on the surge. Since there is no separate reporting for the Villages specifically, I decided to combine the numbers from the 3 counties that include portions of the villages, as reported by the Daily Sun. It's not perfect, but its a pretty good representation of the overall trends in our part of central Florida.

As of today, we have 506 reported cases in Lake, Marion and Sumter county. Dividing by total deaths of 21 gives us a case fatality rate of 4.1%. That is higher that the state average of 3%, I assume in part due to the fact that Sumter county has the highest average age of any county in Florida, so a higher percentage of the population is at risk. On the other hand, it appears that the case fatality rate of new infections is much lower, possibly due to more widespread testing and better treatment.


Below is a breakdown of the trends.

New cases: 13, up 2.6% from the previous day
% infected: .058% of the population has been tested positive.
Total Fatalities: 21, there has been no change for the past 6 days.
% Fatalities: .00242% of the population in the tri-county area has died from C-19.

Odds you get infected: Based on the total number of cases, your odds of getting infected are 1,709 to 1. Based on the new infections, your odds are 66,538 to 1.

Odds you will die: Based on the total deaths of 21, your odds of dying from C-19 are about 41,190 to 1.

Again, those are based on total deaths. If you use yesterdays number of new cases as a baseline, and apply the 4.1% case fatality rate (observed), your odds of contacting the disease and dying from that infection are 1,632,075 to 1 on any given day in the Tri-county area. As a point of reference, the odds of getting hit by lightning in Florida are about 600,000 to 1.

In Sumter county, which may be a better proxy for the Villages, the observed case fatality rate is 6.7%, and new cases were up by 10 (6.1%) yesterday. Using the same math as above, your odds of contracting C-19 are 13,300 to 1 in Sumter county, and your odds of dying from the the disease are 198,507 to 1 on any given day, assuming 10 new cases per day. We'll see how tomorrow's numbers look, and I'll post an update then.

Stay safe and be reasonable.

DISAGREE with the odds because we do not know how many people are positive but have not been tested. And the death rate depends on age and any other vulnerability. Therefore any one individual’s odds could be much much higher than the odds calculated by OP.