Quote:
Originally Posted by Velvet
DISAGREE with the odds because we do not know how many people are positive but have not been tested. And the death rate depends on age and any other vulnerability. Therefore any one individual’s odds could be much much higher than the odds calculated by OP.
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First of all, if we have a large population of positive but untested (and likely asymptomatic) individuals, the lower case fatality rate would largely offset the higher probability of infection. Secondly, the Sumter county numbers include an unusually high number of highly suseptable individuals, and that is reflected in the higher than average case fatality rate, as I noted in my post.