Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobcuse
My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:
Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823
New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869
Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:
NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344
Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525
I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.
This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.
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Thank you, retired numbers guy. Here is a related task for you. Could you now figure out similar numbers for Tri-County people who live IN The Villages and Tri-County people who do NOT live in The Villages? I think there is enough information available online now that you can figure that out.
My sense is that you will find that the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized, and dead of those who live IN The Villages is much lower per thousand than those who live in the Tri-County area but on the outside. This is probably a function of relative ages, ability to socially distance, number of people per household, socio-economic status, willingness to follow rules, education level, type of employment or unemployment, necessary (or unnecessary) contact with others, and more. I suspect that Villagers are MUCH safer than non-villagers, for a combination of these reasons. I hope you will figure out the numbers for us.