As of this morning, the number of virus deaths in Sweden is twice the number of deaths in Florida. Five times as many have died in Sweden as in Denmark, which closed things down. Ten times as many have died in Sweden as in Norway, it’s closest neighbor, which isolated even more effectively than did Denmark.
I guess we will find out if the Swedes quickly achieve herd immunity. I hope they do. I hope we do!
The business angle is a very serious question. Things are not going to simply restart and return to normal. Only after businesses try to restart and do it for a few months will we know the effect on the worldwide economy. For example, I have a close friend who is a director of a major European bank and based in New York City. The CEO says employees will no longer have to come to the office in New York if it makes them uncomfortable. If employees want to come to the office, they can come only one day a week. (My friend says no way she is going back to the New York office—she’ll work from home.) Conferences in person will no longer be allowed. Flying to meet with clients will no longer be allowed. How will that affect the country? Well, for a few things, just for this bank, several thousand business-class flights won’t be made—every week. A thousand nights in expensive big city hotels will not be booked—every week. Several thousand meals in very expensive restaurants won’t be purchased—every week. This means tough times for airlines and thousands of airline employees, hotels and thousands of hotel employees, taxis and thousand of drivers, restaurants and thousands of employees. It means a huge drop in transportation and hotel and restaurant taxes that support many large cities with lots of business and tourism. My friend’s bank expects this to continue until vaccines are available and given to nearly everyone and until there are antiviral drugs developed and available. (And don’t expect new antiviral drugs to be cheap. Some are $12 per pill, but one recommended drug is $118,000 per weekly dose.)
So we may decide that Sweden did the right thing and saved its economy, while our panic destroyed ours. Would it be better to take the chance on two to ten times as many deaths? Tough question. Are you willing to lose your own life, your spouse’s, your son’s, your daughter’s, your grandchild’s?
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