Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - 'Shocking’: 66% of new coronavirus patients in N.Y. stayed home: Cuomo
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Old 05-08-2020, 09:39 PM
mneumann02 mneumann02 is offline
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Default Math Correction

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimjamuser View Post
Very contagious. If you take national deaths and divide by cases you get 6%. 75% of the total deaths nationwide are over age 65. In Fl. deaths divided by cases is 4.2%. So 75% of 4.2 is 3.15%. If you take Sumter, Marion, and Lake together, you get 4.9%. Then 75% of that is 3.7%. So, 3.7% of the people you run into daily in the Villages area will probably die before this is over. CV IS very deadly!
While I agree about how contagious and deadly this disease is (and take issue with those who think their "rights" trump steps to prevent them from transferring the disease to others with possible lethal consequences), I'd like to correct your math. Using your figures, 3.7% of people you "run into" will NOT "probably die." Your 3.7% figure is for those over 65 who CONTRACT the virus. (The actual number is closer to 10%.) The contagion rate for Sumter County is about 0.2 %. So, using your figure of 3.7%, mortality is about 0.0074% of the people you meet, less than 1/10 of 1%. But I still do not like those odds.