Quote:
Originally Posted by Swoop
How do you figure that the number of flu deaths would reduce by 50% if everyone got the flu shot? First, the people currently getting flu shots are already typically the most vulnerable. Giving flu shots to young healthy people would have a minimal effect on the mortality rate. So since the flu shot is about 50% effective and a large number of at risk people already get it, how would inoculating everyone further reduce the number by an additional 50%?Lastly the flu shot for any given season is based on the best guess as to what strains will be most prevalent. When they guess wrong the numbers climb significantly.
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Are you trying to "educate" me???? If so,
That being said, the 50% number is a guess based on the percentage of the population that gets flu shots (approx. 31%) and generally normal distribution. Flu shots, are NOT confined to those most at risk, so that number is only minimally skewed. And yes, CDC goes to Asia in Dec-Feb of the previous year and samples the prevailing influenza viruses, the decides on generally 3 strains to include in the vaccine. It is not 100% effective. On average it is 86% effective, some years 94%, other years < 70%. When an unforeseen strain emerges late in the season, it is close to 0% effective against it