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Old 05-12-2020, 12:15 PM
tvbound tvbound is offline
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Default Stock Markets

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?