Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby
You won't know if this is all working as planned, until 2 weeks AFTER the "cases per day" level out at some kind of minimum (compared to how it was a month ago). Because it takes 2 weeks for the virus to incubate into sickness, and the sickness itself can last up to 2 weeks before someone dies from it. People don't just catch it and die the next day. It isn't that neat and tidy or convenient for number-crunchers.
The death rate reduction, in other words, is the culmination of efforts during the shut-down UP TO TWO WEEKS AGO. At that point, the state started re-opening and loosening restrictions. We will see how well that's working in the next two weeks. Not at the present time. If fewer people die in the next two weeks, than they did between 2 weeks ago and 1 month ago, then we'll know we're on to a positive trend.
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Yes, everybody knows that deaths lag cases by a few weeks, that's why I selected a graph with daily confirmed deaths. Some of the countries in Europe started opening a month ago, and Sweden never really closed. All show a similar curve going downward.