Quote:
Originally Posted by fdpaq0580
The person I responded to had measured Sweden (no lockdown) against their immediate neighbors that did lockdown and fared much better. Compare like to like. Comparing Sweden to the USA is ,IMHO, like comparing NYC to some tiny town in the mid-west.
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NO, you are not comparing like to like. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they were seeded with the same amount of virus carriers. The coronavirus spread globally by travelers, and each country does not get an equal dose.
For instance, the five worst hit in terms of deaths per million European countries are Spain, Italy, France, UK, and Belgium are also some of the most visited countries in the world, except for Belgium, not sure why they got hit so hard. So they got seeded with lots of virus carrying travelers.
Sweden gets 50% more visitors than Norway and 200% more visitors than Finland, so it's obvious they got more travelers with virus than those countries that so many people like to use to "debunk" Sweden's strategy. And comparing Sweden to countries halfway around the world like South Korea and New Zealand is insane, the virus mutated as it traveled and the most contagious strain developed in Europe, which then seeded New York City and then the rest of the USA.
So if you want to compare "similar countries" in Europe to Sweden, you might pick Belgium and Ireland, which have similar travel levels to Sweden. Belgium has a little more, Ireland a little less.
Belgium 794 deaths per million
Sweden 388 deaths per million
Ireland 322 deaths per million
Also, if we do have a second wave, Sweden will have reached herd immunity while other countries in Europe that locked down will see their deaths go up. The only thing that stops a virus is herd immunity or a effective vaccine.