Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Where Florida's spike is coming from
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Old 06-16-2020, 06:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus View Post
You may be right about exponential spread. But I'm leaning toward your side, GoodLife (if I'm interpreting your "side" correctly) - I tend to think the uptick is because of the protests, or at least I'm curious to find out. What data do you think we need then, and when, to identify the protests as the cause of the upsurge, if indeed any data will point to the protests as the cause?

Or, in your opinion, will the cause of the uptick forever remain unknown, and your message is merely to point to Florida's population centers, rather than an event, to explain the upsurge?
Without contact tracing, it's difficult to know source of infection, and doing contact tracing in a protest of thousands of people is probably impossible.

When your average time from exposure to symptoms is 5-6 days, and you get a large spike 5-6 days after huge protests it's a pretty good indicator.

Florida began reopening on May 4, if that is the cause why did it take until June 12 for a spike? Largest spikes on June 12 were in Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties and those counties are under tighter reopening restrictions than the rest of Florida.