Quote:
Originally Posted by Windguy
I beg to differ. Infections grow exponentially. It isn’t much at first, but then gradually grows and then seems to explode. Snowballing...
However, I’m willing to change my mind if you can share logic that shows me I’m wrong.
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Taking Dade county as an example, new cases per day for a week or so before June 12 were averaging about 250 per day, not going up or down. Then June 12 huge spike of 570 new cases. That's an increase of well over 100% in one day. No gradual growth beforehand. Something caused this and I don 't think it is reopening. Also, Dade and other South Florida counties have been under tighter restrictions than the rest of Florida. Protests in Miami began on May 31 and continue, some of the largest were on
June 6 and 7. One week before the huge spike. Average time from exposure to symptoms is 5-6 days.
Take Sumter County for example, no protests, no spike. Only 4 new cases since June 10. If spikes are due to reopening why no spike in Sumter? Lake County was cruising along with 3-10 new cases per day and then gets 62 on June 12. They had protests in Clermont a week earlier.
I looked at a lot of Florida Counties and saw the same thing. Big protests = big spike Small protests = small spike. No protests = no spike.
I am sure some new cases come from reopening, but reopening does not explain these spikes we are seeing. Otherwise we should see similar 100% spikes in all Florida counties not just the ones that had protests.