Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Where Florida's spike is coming from
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Old 06-19-2020, 12:10 PM
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LiverpoolWalrus LiverpoolWalrus is offline
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Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
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4
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10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases.

Goodlife, I'm not convinced it's possible to identify one cause over another. If the upsurge is from the protests, it's going to have the same effect as if it came from relaxing restrictions. Exponential spread starting with the protests is going to continue to work its way through the population just the same as if it started with bars and restaurants, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

Only if the "protest effect" petered out over time, with a corresponding drop in the numbers would we be able to attribute the current spike to the protests. But I don't see that happening given the exponential nature of how the virus is spread.
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