Quote:
Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus
I used percent positive because it's a measure of how prevalent the virus is in a given population. Increasing the number of people tested whether it be from the workplace or anywhere else and seeing a corresponding increase in the number of positives is a completely different metric. That would be a measure of the prevalence of testing whereas the percent positive is a measure of the prevalence of the virus.
It's interesting to see the median age of those testing positive drop so precipitously to a cohort that statistically remains symptom-free. So the data we really need to see is daily rate of hospitalizations and the daily death rate to conclude whether or not we're getting this thing under control.
I'm not able to find hospitalization or death rates over time for Florida - only aggregate figures. Have you been able to find it, Goodlife?
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USA hospitalized
USA Social interaction (cell phone data) vs hospitalization This shows you reopening isn't causing surge in hospitalization
Florida hospitalized
What you are seeing in the new surge of positives is a surge of asymptomatic young people who weren't getting tested much before. That level of positives may have been there for months but we didn't know because people with no symptoms do not ask to be tested. Now you have a lot of work place testing like this:
Tyson Foods said Thursday it has completed COVID-19 testing at its large Berry Street poultry slaughter and processing facility in Springdale.
Of the 1,102 employees tested, 199 were positive, only one of which displayed symptoms.
Tyson said the other 198 positive cases were asymptomatic and would not have identified without the test.
We're not going to see a huge upsurge in hospitalizations or deaths from this surge unless old people lower their guard and start mingling with millennials.