You might want to think about risk in more than one way: first the risk that you get sick. That risk is difficult to quantify. Your movements, your interactions, your health profile, etc, The second risk is that if you get sick, will there be enough hospital capacity to treat you effectively? That is the secondary risk which actually is more easily quantified, and may be more relevant.
Personally, the risk here is a bit more elevated that in other states due to culture, but you can catch the virus in either place. Your outcome may depend more on the availability and quality of healthcare than of getting the virus. However, there are no future guarantees and statistics are not a guarantee, just a historical measurement with never enough details, to any future outcome so being conservative will always be your best option.
sportsguy
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