Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy
Originally Posted by golfing eagles
Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.
So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.
However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.
And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.
sportsguy
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Time will tell. Look for the hospitalizations and deaths about 2 weeks from now and see if it parallels the "new" case rate.
I don't agree that you can dismiss March and April by denying it was the "first wave". It's not possible to compare the severity of the initial pandemic in different locations. Florida was less severe than New York for multiple reasons, just as NY was less severe than Northern Italy at the same time.
And no one suggested that your analysis is "paranoia". I define paranoia as driving alone in you car with the windows up and a mask on---whatever THAT is supposed to accomplish. Or a foursome that went by a few days ago, all in individual carts, all wearing a mask, even though the outdoor human to human transmission rate with social distancing appears to be 0.07%. Some guy in Raleigh, NC was driving alone with a N95 mask, he must have retained CO2, possibly due to underlying COPD, and drove his car into a tree. At least he didn't spread COVID-19.
Again, time will tell. Stay safe.