Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - We may reach herd immunity sooner than you think
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Old 07-02-2020, 09:10 PM
themartianchick themartianchick is offline
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Default Or maybe not!

The problem with this is that there is no reason to believe that herd immunity to COVID-19 can be achieved, at all. Some people have recovered and become infected again. I love data and statistics but a state like NY has had two very distinct experiences with the virus (upstate vs. downstate) and sometimes the data is skewed when viewed at a macro-level, rather than at a micro-level.

NY City is a high-density area that was hit with the virus fairly early on and didn't have as much time to ramp up. Few aspects of life in NYC are private: transportation, shopping, apartment living, etc...Most rely on public systems where everyone is breathing the exhaled air of someone else. There also wasn't a lot known about the characteristics of the virus when NYC was hit. NYC absolutely had to shut down when it did in order to stem the tide. For the purposes of comparison, we should probably compare the data from Miami and NYC. However, those cities are in very different phases of the virus. NYC does not seem to be in an upswing, but Miami seems to be.

I live in a city in Central NY State. Our experience with COVID-19 was entirely different from that of NYC, but we certainly didn't get through it unscathed. We wear our masks (for the most part ) and practice social distancing but we still get hotspots when people decide that the mask mandate doesn't apply to them or decide that it is too onerous to comply for one reason or another. We seem to see our greatest outbreaks in manufacturing and warehousing facilities.

My concern with Florida is the sheer number of seniors and people with underlying health conditions juxtaposed against the numbers of people who refuse to wear a mask and/or practice social distancing. Right now, Florida is on the upswing and we don't know how high it will swing nor how many it will take out. The good news is that we have learned things about the virus as it has raged through other nations, states and communities. This has led to slightly better outcomes for patients battling COVID-19 in places like Florida and Texas.

In Florida, the problem with herd immunity (if it's even achievable) is that far too many of the herd are older and in failing health. To achieve it, we will likely lose a large portion of that subset within our herd.