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Originally Posted by themartianchick
The problem with this is that there is no reason to believe that herd immunity to COVID-19 can be achieved, at all. Some people have recovered and become infected again. I love data and statistics but a state like NY has had two very distinct experiences with the virus (upstate vs. downstate) and sometimes the data is skewed when viewed at a macro-level, rather than at a micro-level.
NY City is a high-density area that was hit with the virus fairly early on and didn't have as much time to ramp up. Few aspects of life in NYC are private: transportation, shopping, apartment living, etc...Most rely on public systems where everyone is breathing the exhaled air of someone else. There also wasn't a lot known about the characteristics of the virus when NYC was hit. NYC absolutely had to shut down when it did in order to stem the tide. For the purposes of comparison, we should probably compare the data from Miami and NYC. However, those cities are in very different phases of the virus. NYC does not seem to be in an upswing, but Miami seems to be.
I live in a city in Central NY State. Our experience with COVID-19 was entirely different from that of NYC, but we certainly didn't get through it unscathed. We wear our masks (for the most part ) and practice social distancing but we still get hotspots when people decide that the mask mandate doesn't apply to them or decide that it is too onerous to comply for one reason or another. We seem to see our greatest outbreaks in manufacturing and warehousing facilities.
My concern with Florida is the sheer number of seniors and people with underlying health conditions juxtaposed against the numbers of people who refuse to wear a mask and/or practice social distancing. Right now, Florida is on the upswing and we don't know how high it will swing nor how many it will take out. The good news is that we have learned things about the virus as it has raged through other nations, states and communities. This has led to slightly better outcomes for patients battling COVID-19 in places like Florida and Texas.
In Florida, the problem with herd immunity (if it's even achievable) is that far too many of the herd are older and in failing health. To achieve it, we will likely lose a large portion of that subset within our herd.
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Lets start with your opening statement.
The problem with this is that there is no reason to believe that herd immunity to COVID-19 can be achieved, at all. Some people have recovered and become infected again
That's old news, and proven false by recent studies. They have found that the people who tested "positive" again just had fragments of dead virus in their system, which fooled the test. Here's just one of many.
Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The so-called re-positive patients weren’t found to have spread any lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them couldn’t be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding non-infectious or dead virus particles.
All the latest studies show that almost everyone who recovers from covid 19 develops antibodies to the disease. Antibodies to SARS were found to be good for 2 years. (one reason it never came back) Then you have the t-cell immunes, who fight off the virus with their immune system. You have to test specifically for T-cell immunity, as it does not show up in an antibody test.
New York and Florida are very similar in size, population, and population density. New York has one huge city, while Florida has 3 medium size cities that add up to one NYC.
The purpose in comparing the two in deaths and cases is not about saying who did a better job. When you look at the comparison in new cases, and how New York had a huge amount that peaked and then has fallen to very low numbers, without a spike in new cases, you wonder why this is. The only thing I can conclude from that data is that NY has achieved a high enough level of immunity that the virus has run out of easy targets. Florida has not attained this level yet, so we got a spike after protests and reopening.
NYC was hit first, seeded heavily from European travelers. By the time they locked down it was too far gone. They had s few hundred confirmed cases and probably several thousand asymptomatics and very mild cases that spread the virus all over the city. Basically, they ran a herd immunity test case without knowing it.