If you read my "Herd Immunity may be closer than you think" thread, you will understand this one easily.
Based on some scientific research by Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt of Stanford and others, herd immunity for this virus may be reached at 30%. Based on CDC Director Redfield statement that asymptomatic cases are 10 times number of confirmed cases, and new research that states T-cell immunity is double the number of asymptomatics, there is an easy formula to predict when the 30% herd immunity threshold will be reached.
Confirmed cases x 10 x 2 divided by total population = current immunity percentage
New cases in Florida have gone up by more than 50,000 in the last week. I calculated a week ago that Florida was at a 15% immunity level. It is now just over 20%.
Confirmed cases 213,794 x 10 x 2 = 4,275,880/20,600,000 = 20.7%
If new cases continue at 50,000 or so per week Florida should reach 30% herd immunity threshold (using my formula) before the end of July. If the hypothesis is correct, new cases will start dropping quickly by end of July and this will be pretty much over by September. I could be wrong, but the data from New York shows a lot evidence that this is correct. They have no spike and new cases have been plummeting for several weeks there. They opened most of New York two weeks after Florida did (NYC 1 month ago) and no spikes at all. I calculated their current herd immunity level at 41% so they reached 30% several weeks ago.
So if you are 65+ or have certain health issues, continue to stay safe and be happy. Stress is bad for your immune system.
We should not see a lot of deaths from this surge, it's mostly younger people who don't die. So far only 99 people under age 44 have died from covid 19 in Florida. 2% of the death total and under 44s represent 53% of all confirmed cases. Median age of new cases is mid 30s. They are more likely to die from the flu. 85% of deaths in Florida are 65+ and they only represent 14% of total cases.
Don't Worry Be Happy Stay Safe
