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Old 07-07-2020, 02:43 PM
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I reverse engineered my formula to see how well it works for New York City.

Population 8,000,000 x 30% = 2,400,000

2,400,000 divided by 2 = 1,200,000 divided by 10 = 120,000

So 120,000 confirmed cases needed to reach 30% immunity threshold

120,000 x 10 (asymptomatics) x2 (T cell immunes) = 2,400,000 = 30% of population

Then I looked for date New York City reached 120,000 confirmed cases.

April 15

new-york-cases-date-png

According to the graph, cases peaked from April 5 to April 12, then started to decline rapidly.