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Originally Posted by Two Bills
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That appears to be just an antibody study and in their conclusion they state:
One in three infections seems to be asymptomatic, while a substantial number of symptomatic cases remained untested. Despite the high impact of COVID-19 in Spain, prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity.
Antibody studies are tricky, our own CDC Director Redfield stated recently that Asymptomatics are 10 times number of confirmed cases. He's looked at a lot of studies. This Spanish study admits there are substantially more than they found.
Also, antibody tests do not show T cell immunes, that's a different kind of test and recent studies show T cell immunes are double the number of asymptomatics. That's how I built the equation confirmed cases x 10 (asymptomatic) x 2 (T cell) = total herd immunity level.
The fact that New York City reached 120,000 (see post #2) cases exactly as cases peaked there in mid April and then new cases began plummeting is powerful evidence that herd immunity threshold of 30% was reached. I did not know the dat NYC reached that number of cases, I just reversed the formula to find out how many actual cases were needed to produce 30% immunity. Then I looked up the date they reached it. Bingo, it was April 15, the end of the week cases peaked there and then started plummeting. The fact that New York has not seen any new spike despite reopening a month ago and also having huge protests is also powerful evidence. Real data is the strongest evidence you can have and its pretty clear looking at New York data that they have reached Michael Levitt's 30% threshold for immunity. Don't try and tell me New York has no spike because they are stricter at reopening, there are lots of photos and videos of maskless New Yorkers at bars etc. They've had 25,000 complaints about violations in the first week after reopening.
If New York City starts getting huge spikes in new cases or if Florida does not stop spiking by end of this month then I'll go back to the drawing board. Won't take long to know.