Quote:
Originally Posted by billethkid
I personally do not see any break with the current trends in infection until there is a vaccine/cure.
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Current trends where? There are many places in the world where deaths and new cases are dropping to almost zero with no new surge like Florida. Look at this chart showing deaths per million of New York State and Sweden. New York locked down on March 17, recommended facemasks in early April. Sweden did neither of these. But both places show a rapid rise to a peak and then the numbers start dropping, heading towards zero. Neither Sweden or New York State is showing a huge surge in new cases like Florida. Only conclusion one can make is NY and Sweden have reached a herd immunity threshold, while Florida has not.
Many scientists like Michael Levitt, Nobel Prize winner at Stanford, have studied the data from all over the world and conclude that HIT is less than 30%. This does not mean 30% of population must be confirmed positive by tests. It's estimated that there are 10 times as many untested asymptomatic cases as there are confirmed positives.
Now many studies are showing an even greater number of people who have T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like common cold. Here is a new study from Oxford.
News report:
Coronavirus: Levels of herd immunity in UK may already be high enough to prevent second wave, study suggests | The Independent
Actual study:
The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 | medRxiv
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...294v1.full.pdf
Based on these studies, I predict Florida's surge of new cases will start to fall by the end of this month. It's too bad that the percent positive numbers on Florida's website are inaccurate due to the reporting all positives problem, as that could serve as a good indicator. I could be wrong, but if that actually happens, I will remind you that I predicted this at the beginning of July.
